Modeling hurricane evacuation behavior using a dynamic discrete choice framework
نویسندگان
چکیده
Predicting evacuation-related choices of households during a hurricane is paramount importance to any emergency management system. Central this problem the identification socio-demographic factors and characteristics that influence an individual’s decision stay or evacuate. However, makers in such conditions do not make single choice but constantly evaluate current anticipated before opting We model behavior using finite-horizon dynamic discrete framework which may choose evacuate wait time periods prior hurricane’s landfall. In each period, utility depends only on his/her present values influential variables, also involves discounted expected utilities from future should one decide postpone their Assuming generalized extreme value (GEV) errors, nested algorithm involving program maximum likelihood method used estimate parameters. Panel data affected by Hurricane Gustav, made landfall Louisiana 1 September 2008, was fused with National Center’s forecasts trajectory intensity for case study paper.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Transportation Research Part B-methodological
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1879-2367', '0191-2615']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trb.2021.06.003